Omdia projects that cellular IoT connections will grow to 5.9 billion by 2035, reflecting sustained expansion across the market during the coming decade. Its latest research examines how evolving 5G technologies are influencing the cellular IoT landscape and identifies three technologies expected to play central roles in that growth: 5G RedCap/eRedCap, 5G Massive IoT, and 4G LTE Cat-1bis modules. Together, these developments are expected to support broader deployment of connected devices and strengthen the ecosystem.

The research identifies NB-IoT, mMTC and eRedCap as the principal technologies shaping market expansion through 2035. Collectively, they are forecast to account for 65% of all cellular IoT connections by that year. Omdia expects eRedCap to outperform RedCap because lower module pricing and broader availability of 5G Standalone networks are expected to remove barriers that affected earlier RedCap adoption. The first eRedCap module launches have already taken place during 2026, while RedCap has recently gained momentum following the introduction of a new Apple Watch range incorporating the technology.

Regional trends also remain an important part of the market outlook. Asia & Oceania continued to lead NB-IoT adoption, accounting for 86% of global module shipments during 2025. The same region is also expected to strengthen its position in LTE-M, with a projected 58% share of module shipments by 2035. Alongside technology adoption, regulatory developments are reshaping deployment priorities across major markets.

The research highlights Europe's Cyber Resilience Act as a catalyst for secure-by-design connected products, requiring five years of vulnerability patching and encouraging wider adoption of eSIM, eUICC and resilient SIM architectures. In North America, the US Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act together with the Inflation Reduction Act are supporting deployments across smart grids, utilities and EV charging infrastructure, creating additional demand for ruggedized 4G and 5G modules.

The automotive sector is expected to become one of the largest contributors to future growth, with more than one billion connections forecast by 2035. Omdia also projects that 89% of automotive modules will use 5G technologies by then, while expanding connected vehicle deployments and increasing vehicle-to-everything communications continue to shape connectivity requirements across the sector.

📊 What This Means (Our Analysis)

The forecast illustrates that growth in cellular IoT is expected to come from a combination of technology advances, regional deployment strategies and supportive policy frameworks rather than a single innovation. The market outlook points toward a broader mix of connectivity options, allowing different applications to adopt technologies that best match their performance and cost requirements.

Another notable takeaway is the increasing alignment between infrastructure, regulation and industry demand. As secure connectivity standards, 5G deployment and sector-specific applications continue to develop together, the market appears positioned for wider adoption across multiple industries while maintaining flexibility through a diverse portfolio of cellular technologies.

📌 Our Take: The next decade is likely to be defined by how effectively cellular connectivity scales across industries while matching evolving technology and deployment needs.